SEMINAR:
  The effect of drone strikes in Pakistan on terrorism and anti-US sentiment
		
Tue, 05 Mar 2019 13:00 - UWA Social Sciences building, room 2.63
		
Rafat Mahmood & Michael Jetter 
This paper analyzes the consequences of the 425 drone strikes the US has
conducted in Pakistan from 2006 – 2016. The existing literature provides
arguments both in favor of and against the use of drones in combatting
terrorism: On the one hand, drones are lauded for being a low-risk,
affordable option that has killed key terrorist leaders and destroyed
their communication channels. On the other hand, the civilian casualties
termed as collateral damage are suggested to increase trauma in the
civilian population, thereby facilitating the recruitment of prospective
terrorists and inciting further terrorist attacks. We aim to isolate the
causal effect of drone strikes on subsequent terrorism and anti-US
sentiment.  To do so, we employ an instrumental variable strategy using
wind gust as an instrument which substantially affects the employability
and effectiveness of drones, but is otherwise orthogonal to the
terrorists’ actions. Data on drone strikes and terrorism are obtained
from the Bureau of Investigative Journalism (TBIJ) and the Global
Terrorism Database (GTD), while data from Google trends and a leading
Pakistani newspaper, The News, are used to capture radicalization and
attitudes of Pakistanis toward the US. Our results suggest that maximum
wind gust provides a powerful instrument in the first stage, predicting
the day-to-day use of drone strikes by the US. Second-stage results
produce a positive and statistically significant coefficient in
predicting terror attacks in the upcoming weeks, suggesting that drone
strikes encourage terrorism. The corresponding magnitudes are sizeable.
Finally, data from Google trends and The News suggest that US drone
strikes are increasing radicalization and anti-US sentiment in Pakistan.

Keywords:       drone strikes; terrorism; anti-US sentiment
		
For more information:
  Karen Eichorn
  ss@uwa.edu.au

Starts       : Tue, 05 Mar 2019 13:00
Ends         : Tue, 05 Mar 2019 14:00
		
Last Updated : Tue, 05 Mar 2019 12:12