SEMINAR:
  The effect of drone strikes in Pakistan on terrorism and anti-US sentiment
		
Tue, 05 Mar 2019 13:00 - UWA Social Sciences building, room 2.63
		
Rafat Mahmood & Michael Jetter 
This paper analyzes the consequences of the 425 drone strikes the US has
conducted in Pakistan from 2006 – 2016. The existing literature
provides arguments both in favor of and against the use of drones in
combatting terrorism: On the one hand, drones are lauded for being a
low-risk, affordable option that has killed key terrorist leaders and
destroyed their communication channels. On the other hand, the civilian
casualties termed as collateral damage are suggested to increase trauma
in the civilian population, thereby facilitating the recruitment of
prospective terrorists and inciting further terrorist attacks. We aim to
isolate the causal effect of drone strikes on subsequent terrorism and
anti-US sentiment.  To do so, we employ an instrumental variable
strategy using wind gust as an instrument which substantially affects
the employability and effectiveness of drones, but is otherwise
orthogonal to the terrorists’ actions. Data on drone strikes and
terrorism are obtained from the Bureau of Investigative Journalism
(TBIJ) and the Global Terrorism Database (GTD), while data from Google
trends and a leading Pakistani newspaper, The News, are used to capture
radicalization and attitudes of Pakistanis toward the US. Our results
suggest that maximum wind gust provides a powerful instrument in the
first stage, predicting the day-to-day use of drone strikes by the US.
Second-stage results produce a positive and statistically significant
coefficient in predicting terror attacks in the upcoming weeks,
suggesting that drone strikes encourage terrorism. The corresponding
magnitudes are sizeable. Finally, data from Google trends and The News
suggest that US drone strikes are increasing radicalization and anti-US
sentiment in Pakistan.

Keywords:       drone strikes; terrorism; anti-US sentiment
		
For more information:
  Karen Eichorn
  ss@uwa.edu.au

Starts       : Tue, 05 Mar 2019 13:00
Ends         : Tue, 05 Mar 2019 14:00
		
Last Updated : Tue, 05 Mar 2019 12:12