SEMINAR: OI Seminar Series - Sam Kelly

Title: Toward the prediction of noncoherent tides

Abstract: Ocean tides are among the best observed and most predictable geophysical phenomena. However, in the 1960's Walter Munk and David Cartwright discovered that the phase and amplitude of tidal motions vary in time and are not entirely coherent with forcing by the Moon and Sun. These noncoherent tides render the traditional "harmonic method" of tidal prediction, developed by William Thomson (Lord Kelvin) in the 1860's, inadequate for many modern applications. Here, noncoherent tides in the Timor Sea are quantified using moored data from the Western Australia Integrated Marine Observing System (WAIMOS). Next, several existing explanations for noncoherent tides are reviewed and assessed with respect to the observations. In closing, some prospects and challenges of predicting noncoherent tides within the next 10 years are summarized.