SEMINAR: OI Seminar Series - Michio J. Kishi

Title: A review of the NEMURO.FISH model applications to marine ecosystem investigations and its ability to evaluate responses of fish to future climate change - What will happen on the stock of chum salmon, walleye pollack, and common squid in the Northern Pacific?

Abstract: What will happen on the stock of commercial fishes in the Northern Pacific by global warming? We will forecast the future status of fish stock based on the outputs from global atmosphere – ocean - terrestrial coupled model of A3 scenario. Hokkaido stock of chum salmon will disappear by 2100 although chum salmon in Bering Sea can still keep the stock. Honshu stock of walleye pollack will collapse in 2050 and Hokkaido stock will decrease dramatically in 2100. The spawning season of Japanese common squid will move one-two months forehead than the present season. NEMURO (North-pacific Ecosystem Model Used for Regional Oceanography) and NEMURO.FISH (NEMURO For Including Saury and Herring) was developed by PICES MODEL TT, Hashioka et al. (2007) predicted the change of lowetrophic biomasses in global warming case. Bio-energetic model of common squid in Japan Sea showed the difference of growth as well as the possible change of its migration route. We will discuss the future possibility of NEMURO applications on the forecast of ecological state.