Our emissions of carbon dioxide cause some global warming, and it has indeed warmed over the last century. But this doesn’t prove that our emissions are the main cause of that warming—there might be other, larger, natural forces on the temperature. The key question is: how much warming do our emissions cause?
We check the main predictions of the climate models against impeccably sourced, publicly-available data from our best and latest instruments. We find they got them all wrong: they exaggerated the warming of the air and oceans, they predicted a very different pattern of atmospheric warming, and they got the short-term relationship between outgoing radiation and surface warming backwards. The latter two items are especially pertinent, because they show that the crucial amplification due to the water feedbacks (mainly humidity and clouds), that is assumed by the models, does not exist in reality. This amplification causes two-thirds of the temperature rises predicted by the models, while carbon dioxide only directly causes one third. This assumed amplification is in the models is because it was assumed in turn that our CO2 caused (nearly) all the observed warming since 1750. Now we know the models are wrong and the amplification does not exist, so presumably this assumption is wrong too. Bio: Dr David Evans used to consult full-time for the Australian Greenhouse Office (now the Department of Climate Change) from 1999 to 2005, and part-time 2008 to 2010, modeling Australia’s carbon in plants, debris, mulch, soils, and forestry and agricultural products. He earned six university degrees over ten years, including a PhD from Stanford University in electrical engineering (the field most advanced in dealing with feedbacks and complex systems). The evidence supporting the idea that CO2 emissions were the main cause of global warming reversed itself after 1998, causing him to move from being a warmist to a skeptic. PS* This seminar is free and open to the public no RSVP required. ****All Welcome****
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