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SEMINAR: CWR Presents

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Today's date is Friday, March 29, 2024
CWR Presents : Extreme rainfall over the south and north Other events...
Extreme rainfall over the south and north-west of Western Australia and the Sydney region of NSW over the last fifty years has been modelled using a Bayesian hierarchical approach based on statistical extreme value theory. Spatial variability of the extreme rainfall distribution is modelled using a Gaussian process, derived from a convolution kernel approach.

This is a flexible approach, accommodating rainfall measured over different durations (from sub- to super-daily) and also allowing for the possibility of linking the extremes to external drivers.

The approach can be used to characterize the behaviour of extremes under present day and projected future conditions. It can be used to derive intensity-frequency-duration curves • together with estimates of their associated uncertainties, • for specific locations that can be either gauged or ungauged, and • provide information for the design of engineering structures such as culverts, bridges, and stormwater and sewerage systems. Extensions to model extremes of areal rainfall, with applications to depth-area curves for example, will be described.

This talk will focus more on the methodology than the application.

Bio,

Mark is a senior statistician with CSIRO, in the Division of Mathematics, Informatics and statistics. He has applied statistics to problems of spatial modelling for many years, in particular the modelling sediment composition in rivers, estuaries and dams. Recently he has been developing spatial approaches to the analysis of extreme rainfall for the Indian Ocean Climate Initiative,

The Upper Parramatta River Catchment Trust and the federal government Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency. His statistical interest also include the application of Bayesian methodologies and hierarchical modelling.



PS* This seminar is free and open to the public & no RSVP required.

****All Welcome****
Speaker(s) Mark Palmer Senior Statistician CSIRO Mathematics, Informatics and Statistics
Location Blakers Lecture Room, Ground Floor, Mathematics Building, The University of Western Australia
Contact Askale Abebe <[email protected]> : 6488 7565
URL http://www.csiro.au/cmis
Start Wed, 03 Oct 2012 16:00
End Wed, 03 Oct 2012 17:00
Submitted by Askale Abebe <[email protected]>
Last Updated Fri, 12 Oct 2012 10:57
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